STORY AND PHOTO BY KAREN BOSSICK
CURVES BY PAUL RIES
One of the nation’s leading coronavirus researchers has suggested
that Idaho should consider clamping down on travel and reissue
stay-at-home orders.
“Has been a lot of focus on outbreaks in big states, like TX, GA, FL,
AZ. Rightly so,” tweeted Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global
Health Institute. “But one small state is experiencing a very bad
situation, has gotten very little attention. Idaho. Their case numbers
are up 1,366% since June 15.”
Jha went on to note that there’s been a 652 percent increase in hospitalizations in Idaho, along with a four-fold increase in deaths. Idaho is seeing 2.5 deaths daily compared with one death every other day a month ago, he said. (Four new deaths on Tuesday raised the toll to 127).
And, he added, 18.2 percent of COVID tests are coming back positive, compared with 3.7 percent a month ago.
“Very concerning rises in rural America, which has far less hospital
capacity, less ability to surge,” he tweeted. “We have to help states
like ID get this under control. For a while, some folks argued COVID was
a disease of dense areas (i.e. cities). Turns out, it’s a disease of
humanity.”
Idaho falls into the red category in the Harvard Global Health
Institute’s recently published color-coded map, which assigns states a
rating of green, yellow, orange or red based on the number of new daily
cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 people over a seven-day average
Idaho currently has 30.4 daily new cases per 100,000 people over a
seven-day moving average. By comparison, Texas, where a thousand people
died in just 10 days as the virus rages there, has 36.6 daily new cases
per 100,000.
Others in the red category include Mississippi, Tennessee, Georgia,
South Carolina, Nevada, Alabama, Arizona and Louisiana. Florida, which
leads the list, has 53.4 daily new cases per 100,000 population.
Blaine County has 4.3 daily new cases per 100,000 population, which puts it in a yellow cautionary category.
Seven of Idaho’s 44 counties, however, fall into the red category:
Ada (51.9 new daily cases), Canyon (60.7), Gem (29.2), Jerome 31),
Kootenai (25.8), Owyhee (55.6) and Payette 37.6). Almost half of Idaho’s
counties, including Blaine, fall into the yellow category. Only four
Idaho counties have not identified confirmed cases of COVID.
States in the yellow category have between one and nine new cases per
day per 100,000 people and calls for a prescription of testing and
contact tracing. States in the orange category have between 10 and 24
daily new cases and should consider reinstituting stay-at home orders,
in addition to regular testing.
Twenty-five is considered the tipping point and authorities in states
that surpass that number should definitely reinstitute stay-at-home
orders, according to researchers.
The only green state on the map is Vermont, which has less than one
daily new case of COVID-19 per 100,000 people. That means the disease is
not considered to be spreading there and the community is “on the path
to containment.”
To see the study, go to https://www.thetruthaboutinsurance.com/coronavirus-responsible-behaviors-by-state/
Nationwide the United States has 15 new cases of COVID-19 per day per
100,000 people, compared with Mexico, which as 4.4, and Canada, which
has 0.9.
People in the red zones where COVID-19 is spreading should reconsider
traveling, noted researchers. Even those without symptoms could spread
COVID-19 to others while traveling, according to Centers for Disease
Control guidelines.
Research from Policylab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia shows
that travel is a huge driving factor. Spread, for instance, has been
detected along I-80 between central Illinois and Iowa, along the I-95
corridor in cities like Wilmington, Del., and Baltimore and along the
I-90 corridor across upstate New York, according to Forbes.
Dr. David Pate, who serves on Idaho’s coronavirus task force, told KTVB that he’s extremely alarmed about Idaho’s surge.
“When people look at the numbers and see 400, 500, 600 cases, they’ll
think, ‘Wow. That’s a lot, big spike,’” he said. “I’m more alarmed
because for every one of those, there’s probably another four to 10
people out there that are infected and have no idea.”